Double chance betting gives you a wider safety net than a standard match result wager. Instead of picking one outcome and needing it to hit exactly, you cover two of the three possible results in a match. It is most common in soccer and other sports where a draw is a legitimate outcome, and when used correctly, it can be a smart tool for managing risk without sacrificing too much value.
The Three Outcomes Problem
In American sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB, games almost always end with a winner. Ties are rare or nonexistent in the traditional betting sense. But in soccer, rugby, cricket, and several other international sports, a draw is always on the table. That creates a three-way market, often called 1X2 betting, where you can bet on the home team to win (1), the draw (X), or the away team to win (2).
Picking one outcome in a three-way market is harder than picking one in a two-way market. Double chance betting exists to give you more room. You are combining two of those three outcomes into a single bet.
How Double Chance Betting Works
There are three possible double chance combinations:
- 1X: The home team wins or the match ends in a draw
- X2: The away team wins or the match ends in a draw
- 12: Either team wins, eliminating the draw
If either of your two covered outcomes happens, you win the bet. You only lose if the one outcome you did not cover occurs.
A Practical Example
Imagine a Champions League match between Manchester City and a mid-table Spanish club. The standard 1X2 odds might look like this:
- Manchester City win: -200 (implied probability: 67%)
- Draw: +280 (implied probability: 26%)
- Away win: +500 (implied probability: 17%)
If you want to back Manchester City but are nervous about a low-scoring draw, you can bet the 1X double chance, covering both a City win and a draw. That bet would typically be priced around -400 to -450 at most sportsbooks, since you are now covering roughly 93% of outcomes.
Alternatively, if you think the underdog has a shot but mainly want to avoid a straight loss, the X2 double chance, covering the draw and the away win, might be priced around +130 to +150. That covers about 43% of outcomes at a price that can offer real value if you believe the underdog is underrated.
When Double Chance Bets Offer Genuine Value
The key question with any double chance bet is whether the odds reflect fair compensation for the outcomes you are covering, or whether the sportsbook has juiced the line so heavily that you are better off with the straight moneyline.
The Case for 1X or X2
The strongest case for a 1X or X2 bet is when you have a clear lean on one team but think a draw is realistic. In tight, defensive matches, knockout tournament legs where one side may be playing for a draw, or late-season games where a draw suits one team's standing, double chance lines can offer genuine expected value.
For example, in a two-legged UEFA tie, a road team that won the first leg 1-0 might play conservatively, making a draw a very real outcome. Betting X2 for the home team in that spot might give you a fair line, whereas the straight home win might be priced too short to justify.
The Case for 12
The 12 market works best when both teams have strong attacking tendencies and draws are historically rare in their matchups. In high-scoring leagues, certain pairings consistently produce decisive results. Removing the draw from the equation lowers your odds compared to the straight moneyline on either side, but it reduces variance when a draw would otherwise be your biggest risk.
When to Avoid Double Chance Bets
If the double chance odds are too compressed, meaning the implied probability baked into the price significantly exceeds your actual estimated probability for those two outcomes, you are paying too much for coverage you do not need. A -500 double chance on a heavy favorite covering two outcomes that total 90% probability still delivers poor expected value if you are risking $500 to win $100.
Always check the EV Calculator before placing a double chance bet. If the expected value is negative once you account for the juice, the bet is not worth making just because it feels safe.
Double Chance vs. Hedging
A double chance bet is placed before the match as a single wager covering multiple outcomes. Hedging is a separate strategy where you place additional bets after your original wager to reduce exposure or lock in profit as events unfold.
If you have already placed a straight moneyline bet on a team and want to protect against a draw late in the match, that is a live hedge, not a double chance. The Hedging Calculator can help you figure out how much to wager on a hedge to lock in a specific return.
Shopping Lines for Double Chance Markets
Not every sportsbook offers double chance markets on every match, and pricing can vary significantly across books. One sportsbook might offer X2 at +120 while another has it at +145 on the same game. That gap matters over time.
Before placing a double chance bet, compare odds across multiple books. Line Whale's live odds comparison pulls lines from major US sportsbooks so you can quickly find the best available price without jumping between apps manually.
You can also use the Odds Converter to translate decimal or fractional odds, common in international soccer markets, into American odds so you are always comparing apples to apples.
Key Takeaways
- Double chance betting covers two of the three possible outcomes in a match: home win, draw, or away win.
- The three options are 1X (home or draw), X2 (away or draw), and 12 (either team wins, no draw).
- These bets are most common in soccer and other sports where a draw is a standard result.
- The tradeoff is lower odds in exchange for broader coverage. Value depends entirely on whether the price justifies the probability.
- The 1X and X2 lines are most useful when you have a directional lean but believe a draw is a realistic outcome.
- Always calculate expected value and compare lines across sportsbooks before committing. A safer-feeling bet can still be a poor bet if the price is wrong.