Iowa State Is a Heavy Favorite Over Memphis
The college basketball market has spoken clearly on this one. Iowa State opens as a massive favorite over Memphis, priced anywhere from -769 to -1250 depending on the book. The Tigers check in between +525 and +669 on the moneyline. Oddsmakers see very little competitive uncertainty in this matchup.
The game tips off Monday, November 2 at 3:00 PM PST, giving bettors about a week to watch the lines develop before early-season college basketball gets underway.
What the Memphis vs. Iowa State Moneyline Odds Tell Us
The implied probability gap here is wide. At Iowa State -1000 on Caesars, the Cyclones carry an implied win probability of around 90.9%. At -1250 on Kalshi, that climbs to roughly 92.6%. DraftKings is the most accessible number at -769, implying about an 88.5% chance of an Iowa State win.
On the Memphis side, the Tigers are listed at +650 on Caesars, +525 on DraftKings, and +669 on Kalshi, translating to implied win probabilities in the 13% to 16% range. The market gives Memphis little better than a one-in-seven shot at winning outright.
To convert any of these numbers yourself, the Odds Converter makes it simple to flip between American odds, decimal odds, and implied probability.
Notable Line Differences Across Books
The moneyline spread across books is worth noting. Caesars has Iowa State at -1000 while DraftKings is at -769, a meaningful gap if you are shopping either side.
For Memphis backers, Kalshi's +669 is the best return available, edging out Caesars at +650. For Iowa State backers, DraftKings at -769 is significantly more palatable than -1250 at Kalshi. Always shop the line before placing, especially at these extremes where the payout difference adds up quickly.
Spread and Total Breakdown
The point spread is clustered around 13 to 13.5 points in favor of Iowa State. Caesars has it at Iowa State -13 (-110) on both sides. DraftKings is a half-point higher at -13.5, with the Cyclones laying -105 and Memphis getting -115. That half-point matters in college basketball, where games near double digits can turn on a single late possession.
If you think this game lands right on 13, the Middle Calculator can help you map out a potential middle using Memphis +13.5 at DraftKings and Iowa State -13 at Caesars.
On the total, Caesars is set at 154 with standard -110 juice on both sides. DraftKings is a point and a half lower at 152.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. The divergence suggests some market disagreement on pace and scoring. Bettors with a strong lean on the total should shop accordingly.
Key Factors to Watch Before Tip-Off
Roster and Injury News
Early-season college basketball is particularly susceptible to roster uncertainty. Transfer portal movement, eligibility decisions, and preseason injuries can all shift lines quickly once they become public. Iowa State enters with significant expectations, and any rotation news could move that spread. Track line movement in the days leading up to tip-off using Line History, which covers 30 days of movement across sportsbooks.
Sharp Action on the Spread
When the moneyline is this lopsided, sharp bettors tend to focus on the spread and total rather than the outright result. Watch for the spread to shift before November 2. If DraftKings moves from -13.5 toward -14 or Caesars bumps to -13.5, that signals Iowa State cover money coming in. Movement the other way suggests books are taking Memphis action or respecting new information on the Cyclones.
Pace and Style Matchup
College basketball totals are heavily influenced by pace. If Iowa State controls tempo, the lower total at DraftKings (152.5) becomes more interesting on the under. If Memphis pushes pace in transition, the over on that same number gets more attractive. Early-season games also tend to feature more foul trouble and lineup experimentation, which generally slows things down.
Line Value on Memphis
The Tigers range from +525 to +669 across books, a wide spread for a single game. If you have reason to believe Memphis is more competitive than the market suggests, avoid DraftKings' +525 and go to Kalshi's +669 for the best return on the same risk. That gap is significant enough to matter over a sample of similar bets.