What the Odds Say About McVey vs. Schultz
Jackson McVey enters this August 23rd MMA bout as a clear favorite, but the spread between lines gives bettors a reason to shop before placing anything. McVey is priced at -169 at both BetOnline.ag and BetUS, while Wes Schultz checks in as the underdog at +145 and +142 respectively. Novig is the outlier, posting Schultz at +130 with no McVey line listed.
At -169, the market views McVey as the more likely winner, but this is not a lopsided matchup. The odds reflect a competitive fight where Schultz carries real win equity.
Implied Probabilities: McVey vs. Schultz
Converting American odds into implied probabilities gives you a cleaner picture of how the books view each fighter.
Jackson McVey (-169)
A -169 moneyline translates to an implied win probability of roughly 62.8%. The books believe McVey wins this fight about six times out of ten. If you're backing him at this price, you're paying a premium for the favorite side of what the market treats as a competitive matchup. Use our Odds Converter to flip between American, decimal, and fractional formats.
Wes Schultz (+145 / +142 / +130)
Schultz's best available line of +145 at BetOnline.ag carries an implied probability of around 40.8%. His worst available line of +130 at Novig implies a 43.5% win probability. Depending on which book you're using, the market is crediting Schultz with anywhere from roughly 41% to 44% of the win equity. For an underdog, that's a meaningful range.
Line Differences Across Books
The Novig line stands out. Posting Schultz at +130 without listing a McVey price is unusual, and it compresses the underdog payout significantly compared to the +145 available at BetOnline.ag. If you're leaning toward Schultz, BetOnline.ag is currently offering the most value on his side.
On the McVey side, BetOnline.ag and BetUS are aligned at -169, so there's no edge to be found shopping between those two.
The actionable takeaway: if Schultz is your play, shop the line. A +145 versus +130 difference on an underdog represents real money over time, and in MMA, underdog prices can swing significantly in the days leading up to a fight.
If you suspect arbitrage potential between the Novig line and another book's McVey price, run the numbers through our Arbitrage Calculator before committing.
What to Watch Before Fight Night
Line Movement in the Days Ahead
With 11 days until the fight, this line has room to move. MMA markets are sensitive to late-breaking news, as injury reports, weight cut updates, and camp rumors can shift a line by 20 or more cents quickly. If you're backing McVey at -169, locking in now protects you if sharp money pushes him shorter. If you like Schultz, waiting to see whether the line drifts toward +150 or better may be worth the risk.
The Novig Discrepancy
Novig has Schultz at +130 while BetOnline.ag and BetUS both have him at +142 or +145. When books are out of alignment on an underdog, it often reflects different assessments of public betting volume or early sharp action. Monitoring whether Novig adjusts upward, or the other books move down, will tell you where the market is settling.
Favorite Liability in MMA
MMA is one of the most volatile sports for favorites. At -169, McVey is not heavily juiced, and bettors should remember that fighters with 60%-plus implied win probability lose regularly in this sport. A single knockdown, submission attempt, or stylistic mismatch can change a fight instantly. The odds imply Schultz wins roughly four out of ten fights. That is not a long shot.
Parlay Considerations
If you're rolling McVey into a parlay, his -169 price will dampen the overall payout. Use the Parlay Calculator to see exactly what the combined odds look like before you commit.
With just under two weeks until fight night, this is a market worth monitoring closely as new information emerges and the books adjust.