MMA Betting Odds: Saturday's 10-Fight Slate Broken Down
Ten fights. One card. All of them kicking off Saturday, October 24 at 7:00 AM PDT. This week's MMA betting slate spans the full spectrum: one extreme mismatch, a cluster of moderate favorites in the -150 to -230 range, and three fights the books essentially cannot separate. About half this card carries genuine competitive balance. The other half features fighters whose implied win probability clears 60 percent or better. Here is what the lines are telling you.
The Standout Mismatch: Yakhyaev vs. Krylov
Yakhyaev is installed as the card's heaviest favorite, ranging from -417 at BetOnline to -500 at BetRivers and FanDuel. That puts his implied win probability in the 81 to 83 percent range. Krylov sits at +320 to +400, with Polymarket and Kalshi both posting +400 for the best underdog return.
At -500, you are risking $500 to net $100. In MMA, where a single strike or submission can flip any fight, that is a steep price to lay. If you are drawn to the longshot, Krylov at +400 is where to shop. The books put his chances at roughly 20 percent.
On totals, the under 1.5 rounds is priced at -270 to -278 at DraftKings and Novig. Books expect an early finish, which aligns with the lopsided moneyline.
Heavy Favorites
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Vagaev is favored between -169 (Kalshi) and -208 (FanDuel), implying 63 to 68 percent probability. Malkoun is available at +150 to +170. The totals market here is the more notable signal: the over 2.5 rounds is priced at -323 to -385 at BetOnline and Novig. Books strongly expect this one to go the distance, which matters when evaluating how either fighter builds to a finish.
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Murzakanov is favored at -185 to -233, with Caesars posting the most aggressive number and Polymarket the softest at -185. Consensus implied probability lands around 67 to 70 percent in his favor. Reyes checks in at +164 to +190, with Caesars offering the best underdog return at +190.
The totals market is notably balanced. BetOnline posts the over/under 1.5 rounds at -106 over and -110 under. Bovada and DraftKings sit at -115 on both sides. That near-even split suggests no strong consensus on a finish, making round betting a viable angle here.
Mid-Range Favorites
Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele
Steele is favored from -149 at BetMGM and Bovada to -169 at Caesars, implying roughly 60 to 63 percent probability. Gugnon is priced at +125 to +143, with the best underdog return at Caesars (+143). The under 2.5 rounds carries -164 to -175 juice at BetOnline and Bovada, pointing toward a short night.
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
Dawson is a modest favorite in the -120 to -132 range, with FanDuel at -132 and Polymarket the most generous at -112. Aliev sits at +100 to +113. Caesars is posting him at even money, which is worth noting given how thin this margin is. Dawson's implied win probability sits around 55 to 57 percent at the sharper books. The over 2.5 rounds is juiced at -238 to -278, suggesting books expect a grinding, decision-heavy pace.
Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki
Santos is favored at -135 to -149, implying 57 to 60 percent probability. Oki is available at +110 to +125, with Caesars at +125 for the best underdog price. The under 2.5 rounds is moderately favored at -161 to -169, a notable lean toward a finish but not as extreme as other fights on this card.
The Pick-Ems
Ramazonbek Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh
One of the closest fights on the slate. BetRivers and FanDuel list both fighters within a tick of each other at -112 and -114 respectively. ProphetX and BetOnline give a slim lean to Temirov, while Caesars, Novig, and Polymarket give the edge to Kavanagh at even money. When books cannot agree on who is even the favorite, there is no reliable moneyline edge to be found. The totals market is equally split: BetOnline posts the over/under 2.5 rounds at -111 over and -105 under. This fight is wide open in every direction.
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Another genuine toss-up. Volkov holds a slight edge at most books, from -112 at Polymarket to -125 at BetMGM. Kuniev ranges from -103 to +113 depending on the shop. BetRivers posts the tightest line with Volkov at -120 and Kuniev at -103. Implied probability for Volkov sits around 53 to 55 percent across the consensus. Unlike the moneyline, the totals market has a clear directional lean: the over 2.5 rounds is priced at -208 to -233 at BetOnline and Novig, making a fight-to-the-finish outcome the consensus expectation.
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Most books list Pico as a modest favorite in the -104 to -120 range, but Caesars flips it with Keita at -115 and Pico at +105. BetOnline also lines Keita as the favorite at -112. Kalshi splits it at -104 Pico and +100 Keita. The direction of this fight is unclear, but the totals are not: the over 1.5 rounds is priced at -169 to -192 at BetOnline and Novig. Expect action regardless of which side you back.
Cam Rowston vs. Abusupyian Magomedov
Magomedov is a slim favorite at -120 to -130 at most books, with Caesars at -130 and ProphetX at -125. Rowston is available at even money to +110, with Caesars posting the best underdog return at +110. Unlike most of the card, this fight's total is set at 1.5 rounds, not 2.5. The over is priced at -189 to -204 at BetOnline and Bovada. Books expect early action here.
Betting the Card
With five fights sitting near pick-em territory, this Saturday card is a parlay builder's dream and a moneyline bettor's challenge. Tight lines mean smaller edges and more variance. If you are stacking legs, use our Parlay Calculator to check combined odds before committing. For sizing individual bets relative to your bankroll and perceived edge, the Kelly Criterion Calculator is a useful starting point. To monitor line movement before Saturday morning, Line History tracks how numbers shift across books in the days ahead.