MMA Betting Odds: What the Lines Say for the Week of August 24
Fourteen fights are on the docket for the week of August 24, and the odds tell a clear story across most of the slate. Several bouts feature extreme favorites priced above -400, while a handful of matchups sit close enough to qualify as genuine coin flips. Knowing which fights fall into which category matters for how you approach your bankroll.
Tuesday opens the week, and a 13-fight Saturday morning card closes it out with the biggest matchup of the slate.
Tuesday, August 25
Guilherme Uriel vs. Mario Piazzon (7:00 PM EDT)
Uriel opens as a -227 favorite, implying a 69 percent win probability. Piazzon sits at +185 (35 percent implied). The gap is meaningful but not extreme. Piazzon's plus-money price offers a reasonable return if you want to take a shot on the underdog, and this is far from the kind of mismatch that makes the fight uncompetitive.
Saturday, August 29: Full MMA Odds Breakdown
The Saturday slate runs 13 fights, mostly starting at 6:00 AM EDT, with the main event closing around 8:45 AM EDT. Plan accordingly if you are watching live.
Heavy Favorites
Rei Tsuruya (-714) vs. Kevin Borjas (+500, 6:00 AM EDT) The books give Tsuruya an 88 percent implied win probability, one of the most lopsided lines on the week. At -714, the juice is difficult to justify on value alone. Borjas at +500 (17 percent implied) is a long shot, but a small underdog flier is not unreasonable if you believe in upsets.
Bilal Hasan (-714) vs. Nilson Rojas (+500, 6:00 AM EDT) Identical line structure to the Tsuruya fight. Hasan carries an 88 percent implied probability. The total is set at 1.5, signaling the books expect a quick finish. Rojas at +500 mirrors Borjas as a significant underdog.
Aori Qileng (-417) vs. Kai Asakura (+325, 6:00 AM EDT) Qileng carries an 81 percent implied probability. Asakura at +325 (24 percent implied) represents the best underdog value in a lopsided spot on this card.
Hector Santiago (-303) vs. Lawrence Lui (+240, 6:00 AM EDT) Santiago is a 75 percent implied favorite. Lui at +240 returns solid money if the books are wrong. The total is set at 2.5, leaving room for a decision or a late finish.
Alex Perez (-250) vs. Su Mudaerji (+200, 6:00 AM EDT) Perez sits at 71 percent implied probability. Mudaerji at +200 is exactly double your money if he wins, making this one of the cleaner underdog bets to evaluate.
Andre Lima (-250) vs. Namsrai Batbayar (+200, 6:00 AM EDT) Same structure as the Perez fight. Lima is the 71 percent implied favorite, and Batbayar returns even money on a two-unit risk.
Jingnan Xiong (-278) vs. Julia Polastri (+210, 6:00 AM EDT) Xiong is a 74 percent implied favorite. Polastri at +210 offers underdog value with a 32 percent implied win rate.
Closer Matchups
Denise Gomes vs. Yan Xiaonan (6:00 AM EDT) Xiaonan is a -149 favorite (60 percent implied). Gomes sits right there at +129 (44 percent implied). This is the tightest line on the Saturday card and one of the true pick-em fights of the week. It is worth checking live odds at Line Whale to see if any books are offering plus-money on Xiaonan.
Sean Woodson vs. Jack Jenkins (6:00 AM EDT) Woodson is -161 (62 percent implied). Jenkins at +130 sits at 43 percent. This one is close enough that line shopping could make a real difference. Finding Jenkins at a better number narrows that implied probability gap even further.
Meng Ding vs. Cameron Nelson (6:00 AM EDT) Nelson is a -141 favorite (59 percent implied). Ding at +120 is nearly a pick-em. The total is set at 2.5, meaning the books are not committing hard to a finish.
Levi Rodrigues vs. Liu Ce (6:00 AM EDT) Rodrigues is the -189 favorite (65 percent implied), with Ce at +155. The total is set at 1.5, the lowest on the Saturday card, signaling a quick finish is expected. With a finish likely, method-of-victory props could be where the real value sits here.
Long Xiao vs. Francesco Nuzzi (6:00 AM EDT) Identical -189 and +155 lines to the Rodrigues fight. The total here is higher, leaving more room for a decision outcome. Xiao is the 65 percent implied favorite.
Main Event
Umar Nurmagomedov (-500) vs. Song Yadong (+375, 8:45 AM EDT) This is the marquee matchup of the week. Nurmagomedov carries an 83 percent implied probability, one of the highest on the card for a headliner. Song Yadong at +375 offers real upside, but the books are direct about who they expect to win. The total is set at 4.5, the highest over/under on the entire slate by a wide margin, suggesting oddsmakers anticipate this fight going deep into the championship rounds. That is a key data point if you are looking at round props or method of victory.
Betting the Saturday Morning Card
With 13 fights in a single morning window, parlay combinations are tempting. If you are stacking heavy favorites, make sure you understand what that does to your combined implied probability. Use the Parlay Calculator to verify the payout actually justifies the risk. And across a card this long, line shopping is one of the easiest ways to add value before you place a single bet.