MMA Betting Odds: Heavy Chalk and a Few Prices Worth Watching
Ten fights are on the board for the week of August 3, and the MMA odds tell a clear story: books have made up their minds on most of these matchups. You will find heavy chalk throughout Sunday's card, a couple of razor-thin lines that could go either way, and at least one underdog price worth a second look. Here is the full breakdown.
Saturday, August 8
Jose Montanha vs. Louie Sutherland
The week opens Saturday at 2:00 PM EDT with a genuinely competitive line. Sutherland is the favorite at -161 (62% implied), while Montanha sits at +135 (43%). When a line sits in this range, books are telling you the fight could go either way. Montanha at +135 offers a fair return on a fighter the market gives a real shot to win. The total is set at 1.5, reflecting some expectation of a finish.
Sunday, August 9 — Early and Midcard Fights
Guilherme Pat vs. Steven Asplund
Asplund opens as a sizeable favorite at -278 (74% implied), with Pat at +220 (31%). At -278, you are laying nearly three dollars to win one. The books think Pat wins less than a third of the time, so the value question on the plus side is straightforward.
Billy Goff vs. Ty Miller
Goff is one of the bigger favorites on the early card at -323 (76% implied). Miller checks in at +260 (28%). Laying -323 requires Goff to win at a high clip for this to be profitable long-term. The total sits at 1.5, keeping finish props in play if you want to look beyond the moneyline.
Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
This is the tightest line of the week. Nurgozhay is a modest favorite at -145 (59% implied), and Lopes comes back at +120 (45%). The gap between these two implied probabilities is minimal, and combined they barely exceed 100%. This is as close to a coin flip as the slate offers. Fights like this are where line shopping pays off. Check the live odds comparison at Line Whale to make sure you are getting the best number available.
Richie Miranda vs. Manoel Sousa
Sousa is priced at -250 (71% implied), and Miranda sits at +207 (33%). Sousa is a clear favorite, but Miranda at +207 offers real return for a fighter the books think wins roughly one in three times.
Sunday, August 9 — Featured Bouts
Ravena Oliveira vs. Juliana Miller
Oliveira enters as a -278 favorite (74% implied), matching the Asplund number from earlier on the card. Miller checks in at +220 (31%). The total jumps to 2.5 here, suggesting books expect a longer fight than several of the earlier matchups.
Quillan Salkilld vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Gamrot is a moderate favorite at -154 (61% implied), with Salkilld at +130 (43%). Another fairly tight line, and the total is set at 3.5, the highest on the entire card. That number signals books are projecting a decision and see limited finishing ability on both sides. If you are thinking about including Salkilld as a live dog in a parlay, run the numbers through the Parlay Calculator first.
Alexia Thainara vs. Amanda Lemos
Thainara comes in at -250 (71% implied), and Lemos sits at +200 (33%). The 2.5 total and moderate-to-heavy favorite pricing make this one of the more straightforward fights on Sunday's card from a market perspective.
Billy Quarantillo vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Quarantillo is a -189 favorite (65% implied), and Ferreira sits at +165 (38%). The gap is noticeable but not extreme. With a 2.5 total and a line in this range, Ferreira is one of the more interesting underdog prices on the card for bettors willing to take plus money.
Sunday, August 9 — Main Event
Yadier DelValle vs. Darren Elkins
This is the most lopsided fight of the week. DelValle sits at -667 (87% implied), and Elkins checks in at +482 (17%). An 87% implied probability is a significant market statement. Laying -667 requires a large investment for a modest return, and +482 prices Elkins as a heavy longshot. If you want to know what that number means in decimal or fractional terms, the Odds Converter breaks it down quickly.
This is a chalk-heavy slate overall, with a few spots where the numbers invite a closer look. The Lopes and Nurgozhay fight stands out as the clearest toss-up of the week, while DelValle and Goff represent the most decisive market opinions. Shop your lines before locking anything in.