UFC Betting Odds: Week of July 20, 2026
Twelve fights land on the slate this Saturday, July 25, spanning from early prelims at 5:00 AM EDT through the main event at 2:45 PM EDT. The MMA odds this week are heavily skewed toward favorites, with several fighters priced above -300 and two crossing the -700 threshold. The one exception worth circling is a near-coin-flip fight buried in the early prelims.
Main Event
Khalil Rountree vs. Magomed Ankalaev (Sat, Jul 25, 2:45 PM EDT)
Ankalaev is the -312 favorite (76% implied probability), Rountree the +260 underdog (28% implied). That gap is significant but not a blowout, which makes this fight worth examining. The market respects Rountree enough not to price him out entirely. At +260, if you believe he has a real path to the win, the return is worth considering.
Note: Ankalaev also appears in the early prelims against Bogdan Guskov at -588. Bettors should confirm the specific fight context before wagering on either line.
Early Prelims (5:00 AM EDT)
Axel Sola vs. Ismael Bonfim
Sola is a -200 favorite (67% implied). Bonfim returns +165 (38% implied). A moderate lean, not a lock. At +165, the market is saying Bonfim wins roughly one in three, which is a real enough shot to evaluate on merit.
Bogdan Guskov vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev is -588 chalk here with an 85% implied probability. Guskov sits at +425 (19% implied). At a line this steep, the only reasonable play on the underdog is a small-unit dart. The 15% implied probability leaves very little margin for error.
Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev
Aliev is a -185 favorite (65% implied), Davis at +150 (40% implied). One of the more balanced fights on the early prelim slate. The market does not strongly commit to either side, and +150 on Davis is a fair return for the risk.
Ramazonbek Temirov vs. Stephen Erceg
This is the closest fight on the card. Temirov is a -118 favorite (54% implied), Erceg is essentially a pick at -102 (50% implied). When numbers are this tight, the market genuinely cannot separate the two fighters. The play here is shopping for the best available price rather than trying to outsmart the line. Check the live odds comparison at Line Whale before locking in.
Tyrell Fortune vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Fortune is a -278 favorite (74% implied). Kuniev returns +220 (31% implied). A clear lean without being untouchable chalk. If you are stacking underdogs in a parlay, Kuniev at +220 adds meaningful upside. Use the Parlay Calculator to check how the combined implied probability holds up.
Sam Patterson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Patterson is an 81% implied favorite at -417. Ponzinibbio, a recognizable welterweight name, is priced at +310 (24% implied). The market is firmly against the veteran. The over/under is set at 1.5, suggesting books expect a quick finish.
Mid-Card Prelims (5:00 AM EDT)
Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker
Walker is a -200 favorite (67% implied), Petersen at +160 (38% implied). Clean moderate favorite structure, similar to Sola vs. Bonfim.
Damian Rzepecki vs. Magomed Zaynukov
Zaynukov is a -357 favorite (78% implied). Rzepecki at +295 (25% implied) has some longshot appeal, but this sits firmly in lopsided territory.
Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov
Turman is priced at -833 with an 89% implied probability, making him the second-biggest favorite on the card behind Tuchalov. Dulatov at +550 (15% implied) is a genuine longshot. At -833, the chalk rarely offers value unless you are building it into a larger parlay at minimal weight.
Late Prelims (9:35 AM EDT)
Abdul Hussein vs. Cody Gibson
Hussein is an 81% implied favorite at -417. Gibson sits at +325 (24% implied). The over/under is 2.5, meaning the market is not leaning toward an early stoppage in this one.
Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov (9:45 AM EDT)
Tuchalov is the most prohibitive favorite on the card at -714 (88% implied). Ribeiro is +500 (17% implied) with an over/under of 1.5, so books expect a quick finish. The only real question is whether +500 is enough to justify a small-unit flier on the longshot.
Key Takeaways for Bettors
Temirov vs. Erceg is the standout competitive fight this week, with the line essentially a coin flip. That is your best spot to shop for price. The rest of the card skews heavily toward favorites, with implied probabilities ranging from 65% to 89% across most bouts. If you are building a parlay around the chalk, stress-test the combined implied probability before submitting the ticket. The EV Calculator is a quick way to confirm the numbers actually work in your favor.