MMA Betting Odds: Week of July 6, 2026
Fourteen fights across two days make this one of the more active MMA weekends of the summer. The Saturday card is headlined by two high-profile lightweight matchups, while Sunday closes with a bantamweight main event the books find genuinely difficult to call. Below is a full breakdown of the lines, what they imply, and which spots deserve a closer look before you commit.
Saturday, July 11
The Headliners
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor is the marquee matchup of the weekend, and the books have no hesitation picking a side. McGregor sits at -227 (implied probability: 69%), while Holloway checks in at +175 (36%). McGregor's implied probability is nearly double Holloway's, so anyone considering the underdog side is buying into a real longshot scenario. For bettors leaning toward the chalk, note that -227 means risking more than two dollars to win one, which complicates the value conversation quickly.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint-Denis is far tighter. Pimblett is listed at -149 (60%) and Saint-Denis at +115 (47%). A spread is also available on Saint-Denis at -5.5 (+105), which opens an alternate angle if you believe in him but want a cushion. The gap between these two is small enough to qualify as a near pick-em. Shop books carefully before committing here.
The Clear Chalk
Adrian Yanez vs. Cody Garbrandt has Yanez installed at -455 (82% implied) with Garbrandt at +300. The total sits at 1.5, signaling the books expect a finish. At that price, the method and timing of the finish may be the smarter betting angle than the moneyline itself.
Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison is about as one-sided as you will find anywhere in sports betting. Steveson is priced at -10000 (99% implied) and Ellison at +1200. The chalk is so steep it barely makes sense to lay the juice, and the underdog price represents no credible value. This one is worth noting as a curiosity, not a betting opportunity.
Kai Kamaka vs. Luke Riley follows a similar pattern. Riley is the -323 favorite (76% implied) with Kamaka at +240. The total of 2.5 suggests this one could go the distance, which is one reason the line looks slightly more moderate than the other chalk spots on the card.
Mid-Card Spots Worth Noting
Cody Durden vs. Alessandro Costa has Durden as a -278 favorite (74%) with the total set at just 1.5. When books price a total that low, they are pricing in a high likelihood of a first-round finish. Fight duration, not just the winner, is the interesting bet here.
Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez is the closest line on the entire Saturday card. Wang Cong is -120 and Cortez is -110, putting both fighters in the 52-55% implied probability range. This is a genuine toss-up. Anytime a line is this compressed, it is worth checking whether different sportsbooks have it flipped or moved. Live odds comparison at Line Whale can help you find the best number fast.
Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra is another tight spot. Reese is a -127 favorite (56%) and Gandra is at +107 (48%). The 1.5 total points toward a quick finish regardless of who wins.
Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida has Pinas as a -250 chalk (71%) with the total also at 1.5. Another fight where a fast finish looks baked into the pricing.
Sunday, July 12
The Main Event
Mario Bautista vs. Cory Sandhagen closes out the weekend and presents one of the more interesting lines on the slate. Bautista is a -169 favorite (63%) and Sandhagen is at +130 (43%). A spread on Sandhagen of -5.5 at +155 pays a meaningful premium, making it worth considering for bettors who like him but prefer added structure. The 2.5 total suggests the books are open to this one going the distance.
Supporting Card
Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh carries similar pricing to the Holloway-McGregor fight. Kavanagh is the -227 favorite (69%) and Royval is at +175. A spread is available on Kavanagh at -5.5 (+120). In MMA, spread lines typically center on judging scenarios, so that +120 number is worth a look for bettors who want a more structured position than the straight moneyline offers.
Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov and King Green vs. Terrance McKinney round out the Sunday card. Whittaker is a -154 favorite (61%) and Green is -169 (63%). Both are solid chalk spots without the extreme pricing that makes some Saturday fights difficult to justify.
Betting the Full Slate
With 14 fights across two days, there is plenty to work with. If you are considering combining any of these into a parlay, the Line Whale Parlay Calculator can show you the combined implied probability before you commit. Stacking -227, -455, and -323 prices together drives your break-even probability very high, very fast. The coin-flip lines, particularly Wang Cong vs. Cortez and Reese vs. Gandra, deserve a closer look for bettors who want a realistic path to value this weekend.