What the Odds Say
Tommy McMillen enters this MMA matchup as a clear favorite across all available books. At 1xBet, McMillen is priced at -172, while BetOnline.ag has him at -169. Those numbers are close enough to signal a stable market, and they tell a consistent story: the books see McMillen as the more likely winner.
On the other side, Marwan Rahiki is listed at +145 at 1xBet and +149 at BetOnline.ag. That four-point difference on the underdog line matters if you're leaning toward Rahiki, since getting the best available number on a plus-money fighter always adds up over time.
Converting those moneylines into implied probabilities gives you a clearer picture of how the market is pricing this fight. The Odds Converter handles American, decimal, and fractional formats quickly if you want to run the numbers yourself.
Implied Probabilities Breakdown
Here is how the market breaks down before accounting for the vig:
Tommy McMillen (-172 at 1xBet / -169 at BetOnline.ag)
- At -172, the implied probability is approximately 63.2%
- At -169, the implied probability is approximately 62.8%
Marwan Rahiki (+145 at 1xBet / +149 at BetOnline.ag)
- At +145, the implied probability is approximately 40.8%
- At +149, the implied probability is approximately 40.2%
The market is giving McMillen roughly a 63% chance to win and Rahiki around 40%. Both books are closely aligned, which suggests the line has found its footing and sharp action hasn't moved it significantly heading into fight night.
The Draw Line at 1xBet
1xBet is also offering a draw at +3200. Draws are rare in MMA, which explains the price. For bettors hunting long shots or building exotic parlays, it is worth knowing the option exists. At +3200, a $10 wager returns $320 in profit, and the implied probability sits below 3%, consistent with how infrequently MMA fights end that way under modern judging. BetOnline.ag is not offering a draw price, so this is a 1xBet-only market.
Line Differences and Where to Bet McMillen vs. Rahiki
The spread between books is narrow, but the better number is easy to identify. If you're backing Rahiki, BetOnline.ag's +149 beats 1xBet's +145. If you're on McMillen, BetOnline.ag's -169 is preferable to 1xBet's -172. Small gaps, but easy to capture if you have accounts at both books. The Sportsbook Rankings page compares books by sport and highlights where each tends to be most competitive on pricing.
What to Watch Heading Into Fight Night
Line Movement
With the fight scheduled for September 13, there is still time for the line to shift. If McMillen's price shortens toward -185 or beyond, that would indicate sharp or public money coming in on the favorite. If Rahiki's number climbs from +149 toward +165 or higher, it may reflect new information: a weight miss, a training camp issue, or sharp underdog action.
Fighter News and Camp Updates
In MMA, line movement is frequently driven by factors outside pure skill assessment. Weight cuts, injuries, late scratches, and coaching changes can all move a number quickly. If either fighter misses weight or reports a significant injury, expect the odds to react fast.
Style Matchup Context
The books are giving McMillen a meaningful edge, but Rahiki's price in the +140s suggests this is not a mismatch. That kind of pricing means the market sees a real path to victory for the underdog. For bettors who follow MMA closely, how each fighter's style matches up is relevant context for deciding whether the favorite is priced too short or the underdog is offering genuine value.
Closing Line Value
If you have a position on this fight, tracking where the line closes relative to where you bet it is one of the better indicators of bet quality. The EV Calculator can help you quantify whether the price you're getting represents positive expected value based on your own probability estimate for each fighter.
McMillen vs. Rahiki shapes up as a competitive MMA fight with a clear but not overwhelming favorite. The lines are tight across books, the market appears stable, and there is still time for meaningful movement before September 13.