Szabová vs. Lisboa: What the Odds Say
Lucia Szabová enters next Saturday's bout as a clear favorite across all major sportsbooks, but the spread of prices on her moneyline tells a meaningful story about where the market actually sits. Books have her priced between -556 and -714 at most shops, implying a win probability in the range of 72% to 85%. That gap matters if you're shopping for value.
Tainara Lisboa comes in as the underdog at prices clustered around +400 to +433, implying roughly a 19% to 23% chance of winning. For Lisboa backers, that's the number to compare against your own read on her chances.
Moneyline Breakdown
The favorite price on Szabová ranges from -556 at BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada, Caesars, DraftKings, and Pinnacle up to -1250 at Grosvenor. That Grosvenor number is a significant outlier. At -1250, you'd need to risk $1,250 to win $100, implying a win probability of roughly 93%. That's substantially more juice than any other book in this market, and it makes Grosvenor a book to avoid on the Szabová side.
On the Lisboa side, the best available price is +433 at 1xBet, with most books clustered at +400. Betsson and Pinnacle both offer +420, giving Lisboa bettors a real edge over the field if they shop around. ProphetX is the outlier in the other direction at +380, so avoid that one for Lisboa.
Polymarket's implied odds are worth noting. The prediction market currently has Szabová at -435, notably softer than almost every traditional sportsbook. Whether that reflects crowd wisdom or a market that hasn't fully priced the fight is worth watching as fight day approaches.
Use the Odds Converter to translate any of these prices into implied probabilities and compare across books.
The Draw Line
1xBet is the only book in this dataset offering a draw, listing it at +3200, implying roughly a 3% chance. Draws are exceedingly rare in MMA, and serious handicappers shouldn't be focusing attention here.
Totals Market
1xBet has the round total set at 2.5, with the Over priced at -143 and the Under at +108. The slight lean toward the Over suggests the market expects this fight to go past the halfway point, though the line isn't extreme in either direction.
Polymarket lists a 0.5-round total with both sides at -2000, which is essentially the market saying this fight will not end in the opening seconds of round one. That's a different question entirely from the 1xBet total, and the two lines aren't comparable. The 1xBet 2.5 is the one with practical betting relevance.
Key Factors to Watch
Line movement heading into fight week. Szabová is already a heavy favorite. Movement toward shorter prices on her side signals sharp action coming in; any drift toward a longer price on Lisboa suggests the market is pricing in uncertainty. Track how books adjust over the next seven days.
Book-to-book spread. The gap between -556 and -714 on Szabová is wide enough that you should not bet this without checking multiple books first. Paying -556 at BetOnline, Bovada, Caesars, or DraftKings is significantly better than paying -714 at Betfair, NordicBet, Paddy Power, or Sky Bet. That difference directly affects long-run profitability.
Underdog value. Lisboa at +400 is a consistent price across most books. If you believe her chances are meaningfully above 20%, most books are giving you a favorable price to work with. The +433 at 1xBet and +420 at Betsson and Pinnacle represent the top of the market on her side.
Check the Line History tool in the days leading up to October 31 to see how these prices shift as fight week progresses. Early line movement in MMA can signal where sharp money is landing, and the variance in pricing here makes tracking movement worthwhile.
Bottom Line
Szabová is the consensus favorite, with the market implying she wins roughly 72% to 85% of the time depending on which book you use. Lisboa's underdog price has held firm near +400 across most books. The biggest practical takeaway: shop the line before placing any bet. The spread between the best and worst prices on both sides is large enough to make a real difference to your bottom line.