What the Odds Say
Rodrigo Sezinando enters this matchup as the consensus favorite across all seven books carrying the fight. His moneyline prices range from -149 at 1xBet to -208 at NordicBet and Novig. Theodor Berggren is the live underdog, ranging from +126 at 1xBet to +157 at BetOnline.ag. The spread in those numbers is wide enough to matter if you're shopping for value.
Sezinando at -179 (the Pinnacle price) implies roughly a 64.2% chance of winning. Berggren at +152 on that same book implies about 39.7%. Those numbers overlap past 100% because of the vig built into the line. To strip out the juice and find the true market probability, the Odds Converter can help you do that quickly for any price listed here.
Berggren vs. Sezinando: The Range Across Books
The line spread on this fight is notable. At 1xBet, Sezinando is -149, implying roughly 59.8% probability. At NordicBet and Novig, he's -208, implying about 67.5%. That's nearly an eight-percentage-point swing depending on which book you use, and that gap is meaningful at this level.
For Berggren backers, 1xBet's +126 is significantly better than the +144 to +157 range elsewhere. Getting an extra 20 to 30 cents on an underdog can make a real difference in expected value over time.
1xBet also lists a draw at +6900, standard for MMA markets. Draws in MMA are exceptionally rare, so that line is mostly noise for most bettors.
Pinnacle as the Sharpest Reference
Pinnacle accepts sharp action and limits far less than recreational books, making it one of the most efficient pricing references in the market. Their line sits at Sezinando -179 and Berggren +152, in the middle of the current range. BetOnline.ag is the closest to Pinnacle at Sezinando -179, while NordicBet and Novig price him as a bigger favorite at -208. When a softer book diverges significantly from Pinnacle, that's often where value surfaces.
What to Watch Before Fight Night
This card goes off Saturday, October 31, at 5:00 PM PDT, giving the market eight days to move. Key factors that could shift the line:
Weigh-in results. A fighter who misses weight or comes in visibly depleted often sees their number move significantly in the final 24 to 48 hours.
Sharp action. A move at Pinnacle in particular is worth tracking. You can monitor line movement across books using Line History to see where and when any shifts happen.
Injury news or late scratches. Any fight-week updates about a fighter's physical condition could push the line in either direction.
Book disagreement. The 59-point gap between the softest (1xBet at -149) and firmest (NordicBet/Novig at -208) Sezinando prices suggests either varying information access across books or differing views on public betting patterns. Watch whether 1xBet moves toward the sharper consensus or holds its number.
Betting Angles to Consider
If you're backing Berggren, the best price right now is BetOnline.ag at +157, followed by Betsson and NordicBet at +155.
If you're on Sezinando, 1xBet's -149 is far easier on the bankroll than paying -208 elsewhere, though availability in your state may vary. Always shop your line before placing the bet.
For bettors who want to identify positive expected value, the Positive EV Finder surfaces live bets where a book's odds beat the de-vigged market consensus. It's worth checking as we approach fight night and books sharpen their numbers.
The market says Sezinando wins this fight more often than not. How much you're willing to pay for that probability, or whether Berggren's price represents an edge, comes down to your read on the matchup and where you place the bet.