What the Odds Say
Leon Shahbazyan enters this matchup as the consensus favorite across all four books carrying his line. BetOnline.ag has him at -152, while Unibet sits close behind at -164. Caesars comes in at -149, and 1xBet offers the softest favorite price at -141. On the other side, Niko Price ranges from +120 at both 1xBet and Unibet up to +132 at BetOnline.ag, with Caesars at +125.
Every book in the market views Shahbazyan as the more likely winner, but nobody is treating this as a lopsided affair. The lines reflect a competitive fight with real upset potential on the Price side.
Implied Probabilities: Shahbazyan vs. Price
Converting these American odds into implied win probabilities gives you a clearer picture of how the market is pricing each fighter. Use the Line Whale Odds Converter to flip between American, decimal, and fractional formats.
Leon Shahbazyan implied probability range:
- 1xBet (-141): ~58.5%
- Caesars (-149): ~59.8%
- BetOnline.ag (-152): ~60.3%
- Unibet (-164): ~62.1%
Niko Price implied probability range:
- 1xBet / Unibet (+120): ~45.5%
- Caesars (+125): ~44.4%
- BetOnline.ag (+132): ~43.1%
Totals exceed 100 percent on each book, which accounts for the built-in vig. The raw market consensus puts Shahbazyan somewhere in the 59 to 62 percent win probability range depending on which book you use.
Notable Line Differences Across Books
The gap between Unibet's -164 and 1xBet's -141 on Shahbazyan is 23 cents of juice, which is meaningful in a two-fighter market. If you're leaning toward Shahbazyan, 1xBet's -141 is the best available number.
On the Price side, BetOnline.ag's +132 is the top of the range. That returns $132 on a $100 bet versus $120 at 1xBet or Unibet. If you like Price as an underdog, BetOnline.ag is the clear destination.
1xBet also lists a Draw at +3200. Draws are rare enough in MMA that this is a novelty line, but it is listed and available for bettors who want to take a small shot on a long-odds outcome.
This kind of cross-book disparity is where line shopping pays off. Use the Line Whale Arbitrage Calculator to check whether the spread between the best Shahbazyan price and the best Price price creates any arb opportunity.
What to Watch For From a Betting Perspective
Line Movement in the Days Ahead
This fight is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, with a 5:00 PM PDT start. Watch for sharp action to compress the line on one side. If Shahbazyan's number shortens further toward -160 or beyond, it likely signals one-sided volume or sharp interest on the favorite. If Price drifts toward +140 or higher, it suggests money is coming in on Shahbazyan and pushing the underdog price out.
Fighter Profiles and Style Matchup
Shahbazyan is a former top-ranked UFC middleweight prospect who has dealt with a run of losses, including stoppages, that cooled the early hype. At 26, he still carries knockout power and solid grappling credentials, but questions about his chin and composure under pressure have persisted.
Niko Price is a welterweight by background and one of the more unpredictable finishers on the UFC roster. He has one-punch knockout power and a durable style that keeps him in fights, but his record reflects the volatility of fighting on the edge, mixing highlight finishes with sudden losses.
Two fighters with real finishing ability and defensive question marks typically produce fights that can end quickly in either direction. For betting purposes, the moneyline may offer more straightforward value than props requiring specific outcomes.
Closing Line Value
Because the line is already showing variation across books, bettors who act early with the best available number stand to capture closing line value if the market tightens. Locking in Price at +132 on BetOnline.ag now could look smart if that number drops to +120 or lower by fight night.
Track this line as it moves through fight week on the Line Whale UFC odds page.