What the Odds Say
Felipe Lima enters this matchup as a clear favorite. BetOnline.ag has him listed at -192, with Morgan Charriere sitting at +168. Novig shows Lima at -189, a nearly identical number that signals a settled market.
At -192, Lima's implied probability of winning sits around 65.8%. Charriere at +168 implies roughly 37.3%. The combined figure exceeds 100% because of the sportsbook's built-in margin, or vig. To strip that out and see the true implied probabilities, use the Odds Converter on Line Whale.
The short version: the books view Lima as a solid but not overwhelming favorite. This is not a -400 chalk situation. Charriere at +168 carries real implied value, and the market is acknowledging a legitimate path to victory for the underdog.
Felipe Lima vs. Morgan Charriere: Fight Context
This UFC matchup is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2026. The odds reflect a competitive fight where the outcome is far from certain.
Lima, a Brazilian fighter known for his jiu-jitsu and grappling-heavy style, has built a reputation as a finisher. His path to victory typically runs through the clinch and the mat, where his submission skills give him a meaningful edge against opponents who prefer to keep the fight standing.
Charriere, fighting out of France, is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with solid striking and enough grappling to compete on the ground. His underdog status at +168 reflects the challenge he faces against Lima, but the line also signals the market is not dismissing him outright. A $100 bet on Charriere returns $168 in profit if he wins.
Line Differences Across Books
The spread between BetOnline and Novig is minimal. Lima at -192 versus -189 is essentially the same number, and bettors will not find meaningful arbitrage between those two prices. That gap could widen as additional books post lines and sharp money or public action comes in.
Monitor the Steam Moves tool on Line Whale to track significant line movement as fight night approaches. With an underdog priced within a reasonable range, sharp action can shift the number quickly and give you an early read on where the smart money is going.
Key Factors to Watch From a Betting Perspective
Style Matchup
The clearest variable is where this fight takes place. If Lima can get Charriere to the mat and work his submission game, his chances increase significantly. If Charriere keeps it standing and uses his striking effectively, the outcome becomes much less predictable. Fights that hinge on location can see line movement as more tape gets analyzed and camp reports emerge in the days before the event.
Late Scratches and Injury News
MMA lines are always vulnerable to late-breaking news. A training camp injury, a weight cut issue, or any change in fight status can move a line dramatically in a short window. Staying close to the odds board in the days leading up to September 5 is smart practice.
Closing Line Value
With both books priced nearly identically, there is limited shopping to be done right now. That could change as more sportsbooks post their numbers. Bettors who can get Charriere at +168 or better, or Lima at -189 or better, should compare across books before placing. The Line Whale homepage lets you compare live odds across sportsbooks in real time.
Parlay Considerations
If you are considering rolling either fighter into a parlay, Lima's -192 price adds less value to a parlay slip compared to Charriere's +168. Use the Parlay Calculator to see exactly what each combination returns before you build around a number.
Bottom Line on the Market
The market has made Felipe Lima the clear favorite at roughly -190 across the books currently listed, implying about a 66% chance of victory. Charriere at +168 carries enough implied probability to be taken seriously by anyone looking for underdog value. As fight week approaches and more books weigh in, watch whether that number holds or begins to move in either direction.