What the Odds Say About Simon vs. Jackson
Montel Jackson enters this bantamweight matchup as a clear favorite. Jackson is priced at -175 across all three books currently posting lines, including 1xBet, BetOnline.ag, and Betway. That consensus reflects strong oddsmaker alignment heading into fight night on September 26.
At -175, Jackson's implied win probability sits at approximately 63.6%. That makes him a solid favorite, but not a dominant one. Ricky Simon is live in this fight according to the numbers, with his underdog price ranging from +140 to +149 depending on where you look. Simon's best available line of +149 at BetOnline.ag carries an implied win probability of around 40.1%. For a quick breakdown of what these numbers mean in different formats, the Odds Converter is a useful reference.
Montel Jackson: Consensus Favorite at -175
The uniformity of Jackson's -175 price across three separate sportsbooks is a meaningful signal. When multiple books land on the same number independently, it typically means the market has found its equilibrium. There is no outlier price, no book posting -200 or -155, which tells you oddsmakers are closely aligned in their assessment of this fight.
Jackson, known as "Quik," has built a reputation as a disciplined, well-rounded bantamweight with strong wrestling credentials and finishing ability. A -175 line is not a "stay away" number for MMA favorites, but it does mean you are risking $175 to win $100. The margin for error is tighter than it would be on a pick 'em.
Ricky Simon's Underdog Value
Ricky Simon at +149 on BetOnline.ag is the best available price for anyone looking to take the underdog side. That nine-point gap over Betway's +140 matters if you are betting a meaningful amount. On a $100 bet, that is the difference between a $140 payout and a $149 payout. Line shopping matters more in MMA than in almost any other sport, because close fights and early stoppages create sharp swings in value.
Simon is a tough, durable fighter whose grappling and chin have carried him through competitive fights before. At +149, the market is not dismissing him. Bettors who believe Simon can impose his style or exploit Jackson's tendencies have a legitimate number to work with.
The Draw Market
1xBet is the only book currently offering a draw price, listed at +3200. Draws in MMA are rare, typically occurring when a fight goes to a split or majority draw on the judges' scorecards. At +3200, the implied probability is under 1%. For bettors who enjoy building creative parlays, use the Parlay Calculator to see how a draw leg would factor into a multi-leg ticket.
Line Shopping Takeaways
The meaningful line difference in this matchup sits on the Simon side, ranging from +140 at Betway to +149 at BetOnline.ag. BetOnline.ag is the clear choice for anyone backing Simon.
On the Jackson side, the line is uniform at -175 across all three books. No shopping advantage exists for the favorite right now.
What to Watch Before Fight Night
Several factors could move this line before September 26.
Training camp reports and injury news. MMA lines are especially sensitive to late injury disclosures. Any report of a significant injury, weight cut complication, or health concern for either fighter could shift prices materially in either direction.
Sharp action and line movement. If the Jackson line moves off -175 without a clear public-driven reason, it may signal professional money coming in on one side. Tracking movement in the days leading up to the fight can reveal where sophisticated bettors are leaning.
Weigh-in performance. Bantamweight cuts can be demanding. How each fighter looks on the scale and at the face-off can offer real information about physical condition heading into the fight.
Public betting percentages. Heavy public money on Jackson could push his line to -185 or -190, which would make Simon's underdog price even more attractive for contrarian bettors.
Check back on Line Whale's live UFC odds page as fight night approaches to track line movement across books in real time.