What the Odds Say
Noah Gugnon travels to face Kody Steele in an MMA bout scheduled for Saturday, October 24 at 7:00 AM PDT. The market has installed Steele as the favorite across all books, but the spread between lines tells a clear story about how different sportsbooks are valuing this fight.
Steele's moneyline ranges from -149 at BetMGM to -169 at both Caesars Sportsbook and 1xBet. Gugnon checks in as a live underdog, ranging from +118 at 1xBet to +143 at Caesars. That gap is meaningful, and bettors willing to shop lines will find real differences depending on which side they prefer.
Kody Steele Is the Consensus Favorite
Steele is the clear consensus favorite, but implied probabilities vary by book. At -169 (Caesars and 1xBet), his implied win probability sits around 62.8%. At BetMGM's -149, that drops to roughly 59.8%. For bettors backing a negative-moneyline fighter, getting the best number matters for long-term value.
On Gugnon's side: at +143 (Caesars), his implied probability is around 41.2%. At +118 (1xBet), it climbs to approximately 45.8%. That's nearly a five-point swing in implied probability from shopping across books. If you believe Gugnon wins, Caesars is the place to be. If you're backing Steele, BetMGM's -149 gives you the best return.
Use the Odds Converter to translate any of these American odds into implied probabilities or decimal format.
The 1xBet Draw Line
1xBet is the only book posting a draw line, listed at +3200. MMA draws are rare, and at +3200 the implied probability is less than 1%. This is largely noise for most bettors, but it reflects how 1xBet structures their MMA markets differently from US-facing books like BetMGM, BetOnline, and Caesars.
Totals: Short Fight on the Board
BetOnline.ag is the only book currently posting a total, setting the line at 2.5 rounds. The Over is priced at +107 and the Under sits at -125. That -125 juice on the Under signals the market leans toward a finish before the midpoint of round three.
For bettors interested in the totals market, combining the moneyline with the round total can open up parlay opportunities. The Parlay Calculator can help you map out what pairing Steele on the moneyline with the Under 2.5 would pay across books.
Key Factors to Watch
Line Movement Leading Into Fight Week
This bout is seven days out and there is room for lines to shift as more money comes in. The current spread between books, particularly Gugnon's range from +118 to +143, suggests the market hasn't fully settled. If sharp action hits one side, those numbers could move quickly. Monitoring line movement through fight week is worthwhile if you're waiting for the right entry point.
Market Confidence in the Matchup
Steele's pricing in the -149 to -169 range, rather than -250 or higher, signals the market views this as a genuinely competitive fight. Implied probabilities hovering around 60% for Steele mean the market gives Gugnon a winning chance roughly four times out of ten. That kind of pricing typically attracts two-way action and keeps lines stable unless new information surfaces.
Finish vs. Decision
With the Under 2.5 priced at -125, the market is pricing in a meaningful chance this fight ends early. Bettors focused on method-of-victory or round betting should factor in that the consensus expectation leans toward a finish. If you believe this fight goes to the scorecards, the Over 2.5 at +107 is a positive-odds way to play that outcome.
Shopping for the Best Line
The line gap in this fight is real and exploitable. Gugnon at +143 vs. +118 is a significant difference for underdog bettors. Steele at -149 vs. -169 matters equally on the favorite side. Having accounts at multiple books before Saturday morning is the most straightforward way to capture better pricing. Check the Sportsbook Rankings page if you're evaluating which books to add ahead of this fight.