What the Odds Say
Islam Makhachev enters this fight as a clear favorite across all five major sportsbooks, but the spread is wide enough to make line shopping genuinely worthwhile. Makhachev is priced between -312 and -385 depending on where you look, while Ian Garry sits anywhere from +250 to +295 on the other side.
That gap matters. A bettor taking Garry at +250 (Caesars) versus +295 (BetRivers) is leaving real money on the table. Before placing any wager, use the odds comparison tool on the Line Whale UFC page to confirm you are getting the best available number.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Garry: Implied Probabilities
Converting those moneylines into implied win probabilities gives you a clearer picture of how the market views this fight.
At -345 (DraftKings and Caesars), Makhachev carries an implied probability of around 77.5%. At his shortest price of -385 (FanDuel and BetRivers), that number climbs to roughly 79.4%. Garry's implied probability sits between approximately 25.3% at +250 (Caesars) and 29.8% at +295 (BetRivers).
The market sees Makhachev as a heavy but not overwhelming favorite. The gap between books is wide enough to run the numbers yourself. The Odds Converter on Line Whale lets you flip between American, decimal, and fractional formats quickly.
The Line Spread Across Books
Makhachev's Moneyline Range
- Shortest: -312 at BetOnline.ag
- Longest: -385 at FanDuel and BetRivers
A $100 bet on Makhachev at -385 returns $25.97. That same bet at -312 returns $32.05. That difference in payout for the same outcome is why comparing lines before locking in is essential.
Garry's Moneyline Range
- Best price: +295 at BetRivers
- Worst price: +250 at Caesars
A $100 bet on Garry at +295 wins $295. At +250, that same bet wins $250. For a fight with this much uncertainty, getting the best underdog price is critical.
BetOnline.ag stands out as the most Garry-friendly book right now with Makhachev at just -312. Whether that reflects a slower line or a different model than the larger books is worth watching as fight night approaches.
What to Watch for From a Betting Perspective
Line Movement Leading Into Fight Night
This card is 28 days out, which means plenty of time for these numbers to shift. Any news around training camp, injuries, or fighter comments could move the line quickly. Public money tends to flow toward big names and favorites, so watch for Makhachev's number to potentially shorten further as casual bettors engage closer to August 16.
Sharp action could push it the other way. If books start adjusting Garry's price upward, that is often a signal that professional bettors see value on the underdog side. Track sharp line shifts through the Steam Moves tool.
Garry's Path and Its Betting Implications
Garry is priced as a significant underdog, but not a hopeless one. A fight where the underdog is implied to win 26 to 30 percent of the time is a fight where upsets are real outcomes. The question for bettors is whether the current price accurately reflects that probability.
Garry's striking range and ability to control distance are factors oddsmakers are weighing. If any information surfaces suggesting Makhachev is less than 100 percent, expect his price to lengthen quickly.
Parlay Considerations
Makhachev at heavy chalk is a common parlay anchor, but attaching him at -385 significantly limits the payout. Run your numbers through the Parlay Calculator to see exactly what the combined implied probability looks like before committing.
The Bottom Line
Makhachev is the clear market favorite at 77 to 79 percent implied probability. The books agree on direction but not on size, and that gap creates legitimate opportunity for bettors willing to shop lines. Check back as fight night approaches, because 28 days is a long time for a fight this significant to sit still.