What the Odds Say
Ethyn Ewing and Farid Basharat meet on Saturday, July 11, and the betting market has a clear lean heading into fight night. FanDuel lists Ewing as a modest favorite at -147, with Basharat as the underdog at +116. This is a tight line for an MMA bout, signaling that the market sees a competitive matchup rather than a lopsided affair.
A -147 favorite is not heavy chalk. The market is not overwhelmingly confident in Ewing, and the +116 price on Basharat makes him a live underdog worth considering.
Breaking Down the Implied Probabilities
Converting these odds into implied win percentages gives you a clearer picture of how the market is pricing this fight. Use the Odds Converter on Line Whale to run any line instantly.
For this matchup:
- Ethyn Ewing at -147 implies a win probability of approximately 59.5%
- Farid Basharat at +116 implies a win probability of approximately 46.3%
Those two numbers add up to more than 100%. That overage, roughly 5.8%, is the vig, the sportsbook's built-in margin. Strip it out and you have a fight the market treats as close to a coin flip, with Ewing holding a slight edge.
A line this tight in MMA signals that oddsmakers are not willing to commit heavily to either fighter. In a sport where a single submission or knockout can end things in seconds, that kind of market caution is worth noting.
No Line Shopping Opportunities Yet
With only FanDuel currently posting a number, there is no line shopping to be done right now. That will change as July 11 approaches and additional sportsbooks open their own markets.
Bettors who want the best number on either side should track line movement as more books come online. A 10 to 15 cent swing on a line this close can meaningfully change your expected return. Check the UFC odds page on Line Whale to compare lines across sportsbooks as they become available.
Key Factors to Watch Before Betting
Line Movement
The most important thing to monitor is where other sportsbooks open this fight. If Ewing comes in closer to -160 or higher at additional books, that suggests sharp action or new information has moved the market. If Basharat tightens to -105 or -110 somewhere, that is a meaningful signal about where market sentiment is heading.
Sharp line movement in MMA tends to happen in the 48 to 72 hours before the event. Watching that window gives you a read on where the professional money is going.
Style and Finish Rate
MMA lines are heavily influenced by how fights are expected to play out. Whether Ewing and Basharat tend to finish fights or grind to the scorecards will help you assess whether the current line is fair value.
Card Position and Weight Class
Where this fight sits on the card matters for betting context. Main card bouts tend to draw more sharp action, which generally produces tighter, more efficiently priced lines. Preliminary markets can carry more slack.
Closing Line Value
For bettors focused on long-term edge, the goal is not just picking the winner but beating the closing line. If Ewing closes at -165 and you got him at -147, that is closing line value regardless of the result. The EV Calculator on Line Whale can help you assess whether a given line offers positive expected value before you place a bet.
Bottom Line on the Ewing vs. Basharat Market
At -147 and +116, this fight is priced as a competitive bout with Ewing holding a slight market edge. The implied probabilities are close, the line is not steep, and with only one book posting numbers, the market is still early. Monitor line movement as more books open and fight week approaches. That movement will tell you more about where the smart money is landing than any single-book snapshot can.