What the Odds Say
Azamat Murzakanov enters this light heavyweight matchup as a clear favorite across every book carrying the fight. Lines range from -213 at Kalshi and Pinnacle to -256 at Novig, putting his implied win probability between 68% and 72% depending on the book. Dominick Reyes, the former title challenger who pushed Jon Jones to a controversial decision in 2020, comes back as an underdog priced from +160 at 1xBet to +189 at BetOnline.ag.
For bettors who want to convert these numbers quickly, the Odds Converter can translate any American odds into implied probabilities or decimal format in seconds.
The market is settled on Murzakanov as the favorite, but the spread between books is wide enough to matter, especially on the Reyes side.
Breaking Down the Reyes vs. Murzakanov Line Differences
The gap between books on this fight is notable. On the Murzakanov side, prices swing from -213 at Kalshi and Pinnacle to -256 at Novig, a 43-cent difference on the favorite. A bettor laying juice on Murzakanov at Pinnacle is getting a meaningfully better deal than one taking -256 at Novig.
The swing is even wider on the Reyes side. BetOnline.ag posts Reyes at +189, while 1xBet has him at +160, a 29-cent gap. For anyone looking to back Reyes, BetOnline.ag currently offers the best return, with Kalshi (+186) and Pinnacle (+180) also competitive.
1xBet is the only book in the current data offering a draw price, posting it at +3200. Draws are rare in MMA, but for a small stake that number is worth noting if you are building a multi-outcome position.
Pinnacle operates with the lowest margin in the industry, making their -213 / +180 line the sharpest reference point in the market. Using that as an anchor, Murzakanov's fair implied probability is around 68%, and Reyes comes in near 36% after removing the vig.
Fighter Breakdown: What Bettors Should Know
Dominick Reyes
Reyes was among the best light heavyweights in the world in 2019-2020. Wins over Chris Weidman, Volkan Oezdemir, and Ovince Saint Preux earned him a title shot against Jon Jones, a fight that remains one of the more contested scorecards in recent UFC history. Since then, Reyes has gone 1-3, with losses to Jan Blachowicz and Jiří Procházka, the latter a brutal first-round knockout. His last win came against Ryan Spann in 2021. He has been inactive since, and the market currently does not trust him to be a factor here.
Azamat Murzakanov
Murzakanov is the younger, ascending fighter in this matchup. The Russian prospect went 5-0 in the UFC before his first promotional loss, a split decision to Dustin Jacoby in 2023. He bounced back with a finish of Marcin Prachnio and carries a 32-2 overall record into this fight. The market is treating this as a spot where Murzakanov re-establishes himself against a well-known but faded opponent.
What to Watch Before Fight Night
A few factors could shift these lines before the Oct. 24 card.
Sharp action on Reyes. The +189 at BetOnline.ag is the kind of number that attracts attention if the betting community believes the market is overcorrecting against Reyes. Significant money at the top price could compress that number quickly. The Line History tool on Line Whale tracks movement across books so you can spot any shift as it happens.
Injury or weigh-in news. MMA lines can move fast on late-breaking information. Reyes has had durability questions, and any news out of either camp leading into fight week is worth monitoring.
The Novig outlier. Murzakanov at -256 at Novig is a significant outlier compared to the rest of the market. If you are looking to lay the favorite, there is no reason to take that price when Kalshi and Pinnacle both offer -213 on the same outcome. Line shopping matters in every sport, and in MMA it can be the difference between positive and negative expected value over time.
Cross-book value check. The spread between BetOnline.ag's Reyes at +189 and Novig's Murzakanov at -256 is unlikely to produce a clean arbitrage opportunity, but running any combination through the Arbitrage Calculator takes seconds and is worth doing before placing either side.
The fight is 10 days out and there is time for the market to tighten. The consensus right now puts Murzakanov as a solid, if not overwhelming, favorite, while Reyes offers underdog value at multiple books for bettors who believe the market has overreacted to his recent inactivity.