What the Odds Say
Philadelphia Union are the clear favorites in this MLS matchup against CF Montreal on Saturday, September 5. The moneyline numbers tell a consistent story across every book on the board.
FanDuel has the Union at -238, the steepest price available. MyBookie.ag sits at -222, while Kalshi comes in lower at -192. Those differences are worth noting. On the Montreal side, the Canadian club is listed anywhere from +500 (FanDuel, MyBookie.ag) to +525 (Kalshi), making them a significant long shot regardless of where you shop.
Implied Probabilities: Philadelphia Union vs. CF Montreal
Converting those moneylines into implied probability gives you a clearer picture of how heavily the market favors Philadelphia. You can run any of these numbers through the Odds Converter to verify.
Philadelphia Union (to win)
- FanDuel -238: approximately 70.4% implied probability
- MyBookie.ag -222: approximately 68.9%
- Kalshi -192: approximately 65.8%
CF Montreal (to win)
- FanDuel +500: approximately 16.7%
- MyBookie.ag +500: approximately 16.7%
- Kalshi +525: approximately 16.0%
Draw
- FanDuel +380: approximately 20.8%
- Kalshi +376: approximately 21.0%
- MyBookie.ag +350: approximately 22.2%
Draw implied probabilities in the low 20s are consistent with typical MLS markets. Soccer carries a third outcome, and that needs to factor into your true win probability assessment for either side.
Notable Line Differences Across Books
The gap between Kalshi and FanDuel on the Union moneyline is meaningful. A -192 at Kalshi versus -238 at FanDuel represents roughly 4.6 percentage points of implied probability. If you have accounts at both books, that gap is worth acting on.
For Montreal backers, Kalshi is offering +525 compared to +500 at FanDuel and MyBookie.ag. It is a modest difference on a long shot, but if you are taking a flyer on the underdog, Kalshi is the better number.
On the draw, MyBookie.ag is the least competitive at +350. FanDuel (+380) and Kalshi (+376) offer better value for bettors who think this match could end level.
Spread and Total Context
MyBookie.ag is also posting a spread and total for this match. Philadelphia is favored by 1.5 goals at +111, meaning a two-goal win pays slightly above even money. Montreal at +1.5 is listed at -154, so laying juice just to get the cushion is the trade-off for underdog backers.
The total is set at 3.5 goals, with the over at +109 and the under at -152. The juice on the under suggests books lean toward a lower-scoring match despite Philadelphia's significant moneyline advantage. That kind of divergence is common in soccer, where a team managing a lead can slow the game and suppress scoring.
Key Factors to Watch Before Saturday
Home Field and Recent Form
Philadelphia is playing at home, which carries real weight in MLS. Subaru Park is a difficult venue for visiting teams, and the Union have historically leveraged that advantage in conference play. Updates on Montreal's road form heading into the weekend could shift the line.
Injury and Lineup News
Roster availability is one of the biggest line movers in soccer. A key attacking player missing for either side could push the total lower or shift the moneyline meaningfully. Monitor official injury reports and lineup confirmations as they drop closer to kickoff. Significant line movement without an obvious news catalyst is often a sign of sharp action on one side.
Line Movement
The Union are already priced as strong favorites, but the line can move in either direction as betting volume builds and new information surfaces. Tracking these numbers over the next 13 days can signal where the smart money is going.
Comparing Your Options
With 13 days before kickoff, there is time to shop lines and secure the best number at the right book. If you are not already set up with multiple accounts, our Sportsbook Rankings page is a good place to compare options and find books with competitive MLS pricing.
The market consensus is clear: Philadelphia Union are substantial home favorites against CF Montreal. Unless something significant changes before Saturday, the books expect the Union to control this one.