What the Odds Say About This Matchup
New England Revolution host Toronto FC on Wednesday, July 22, and the betting market is firmly behind the home side. The Revolution are installed as clear favorites, with BetMGM pricing them at -141 and FanDuel coming in slightly stronger at -145. Toronto FC sit as significant underdogs at +350 on both books, making this one of the more lopsided MLS matchups on the midweek slate.
The consistency across books on the Toronto price signals strong market confidence in that line. The draw sits at +270 on BetMGM and +280 on FanDuel, a small gap worth noting.
Breaking Down the Implied Probabilities
Converting these American odds into implied probabilities gives you a clearer picture of how the market views each outcome. Use the Line Whale Odds Converter to run the math on any line instantly.
Here is where the market stands:
New England Revolution (Favorite)
- BetMGM -141 implies roughly 58.5% probability
- FanDuel -145 implies roughly 59.2% probability
Toronto FC (Underdog)
- +350 at both books implies roughly 22.2% probability
Draw
- BetMGM +270 implies roughly 27.0% probability
- FanDuel +280 implies roughly 26.3% probability
These implied probabilities include the sportsbook's margin, so the three outcomes will add up to more than 100% combined. What the numbers tell you is that New England is expected to win close to six out of ten times under these conditions, while Toronto is given roughly a one-in-four shot of leaving with a result.
Notable Line Differences Across Books
FanDuel is four cents sharper on New England (-145 vs. -141), shifting a small amount of implied probability toward the Revolution. For bettors looking to back Toronto, the number is identical at +350 on both books, so there is no meaningful edge to chase on that side right now.
The more actionable gap is on the draw. FanDuel pays +280 compared to BetMGM's +270. Ten cents may not seem significant, but on a bet where implied probability is already in the mid-twenties, getting the better number adds up over time. If the draw is part of your plan for this match, FanDuel currently offers the better price.
The total is currently listed only at BetMGM, set at 2.5 goals. The over is priced at -145 and the under at +100. That over price reflects a market lean toward goals. The under at even money is worth monitoring as more books post their lines ahead of kickoff.
Key Factors That Could Move the Line
Team Form and Roster News
MLS midweek fixtures can shift quickly based on squad depth and rotation. Any significant injury or lineup news, especially at goalkeeper or in attacking positions, could trigger meaningful movement. Watch official injury reports as the match approaches.
Home Field in MLS
Home advantage in MLS carries real weight, and New England playing at Gillette Stadium is already priced into this line. If the Revolution are managing a heavy schedule or key absences, that edge can erode quickly. Any indication that Toronto is traveling without key contributors could push the Revolution price even shorter.
Line Movement
This match is ten days out, leaving a full window for sharp action to move these numbers. Significant movement off the current -141/-145 range on New England, or any drift in Toronto's price, would signal the market is repricing based on new information. Our Steam Moves tool flags sharp line movement across books as it happens.
Total Goals Context
At 2.5, the total sits at the most common threshold for soccer betting. The -145 price on the over reflects a market lean toward goals, but MLS matches can be unpredictable. How both defenses have performed in recent weeks will be a key factor as the line sharpens.
Shopping Lines Before Kickoff
With ten days until kickoff, these odds will move. Checking back across multiple books as the date approaches is the straightforward way to ensure you are getting the best available number. The Line Whale homepage tracks live odds comparison across all sports and will update as additional books post lines for this match.