EPL Betting Odds Preview: Week of October 12, 2026
Ten EPL fixtures are on the slate this week, and the odds tell a clear story across the board. The market has produced one monster blowout line (Manchester City vs. Ipswich), three genuine coin-flips (Leeds vs. Man United, Bournemouth vs. Sunderland, Brentford vs. Liverpool), and a Sunday closer in Arsenal at Nottingham Forest that carries real lopsided weight. Whether you are hunting value on heavy chalk, shopping plus-money on a tight pick-em, or scanning for totals angles, this week has something for every EPL bettor.
Monday, October 12
Newcastle United at Coventry City, 12:00 PM PDT
The week opens with Newcastle traveling to Coventry. Books make this a moderate lean toward the Magpies, with BetMGM posting Newcastle at +110 and Coventry at +190. Across the board, Newcastle is priced in the -110 to +127 range depending on the book, with an implied win probability around 47.6% at BetMGM. Coventry's win chance sits in the low 30s, and the draw is live at +230 to +260. This is a solid three-way market with no strongly dominant side. The total is set at 2.5 almost universally, with the over priced between -133 (Kalshi/Polymarket) and -161 (BetMGM), implying 57-62% probability of three or more goals.
Saturday, October 17
Chelsea at Everton, 4:30 AM PDT
Chelsea are a clear road favorite at Goodison. BetMGM and FanDuel both post Chelsea at +110, implying roughly 47.6% win probability. Everton's home moneyline ranges from +204 (MyBookie) to +223 across most books, putting their implied win chance in the low 30s. The draw sits around +260 to +285. On totals, the over 2.5 is a clear favorite at -139 to -161, with BetRivers and BetMGM both at -161 on the over. Chelsea backers get the best price at BetMGM or FanDuel (+110).
Hull City at Fulham, 7:00 AM PDT
Fulham are comfortable home favorites, with a moneyline in the -137 to -164 range. FanDuel is the steepest chalk at -164, implying 62% win probability. Hull backers get the best price at BetRivers and BetMGM (+375). The draw is live at +285 to +317. The total is 2.5 across all books, with the over priced between -127 (Polymarket/Kalshi) and -152 (BetRivers). If you lean low-scoring, BetMGM has the tightest under price at +105.
Ipswich Town at Manchester City, 7:00 AM PDT
This is the most lopsided line of the week. Manchester City is priced between -370 (BetMGM) and -500 (FanDuel), with FanDuel's price implying 83% win probability. Even the most conservative book on City sits around 79% implied. Ipswich's upset price ranges from +850 (BetMGM/MyBookie) to +1150 (BetRivers/Polymarket/Kalshi), implying 8-10.5% probability. The draw is +520 to +669, roughly 13-16% implied.
The more interesting market here is the total. Virtually every book has it at 3.5, and the spread between over and under is razor-thin. BetRivers posts -114 over / -112 under, practically a coin-flip on whether these teams combine for four or more goals. Bovada and LowVig.ag lean slightly under at -105 over / -115 under. If you want a play in this game without laying -400 or more on the City moneyline, the total is the angle worth exploring.
Liverpool at Brentford, 7:00 AM PDT
This is the most competitive matchup on the Saturday slate. The odds put it close to a pick-em, with Brentford priced at +137 to +156 and Liverpool at +155 to +178. BetMGM and FanDuel post both sides at +150/+155. LowVig has Liverpool at +176, the best available price if you lean the road side. Brentford's implied win probability is 39-42%, Liverpool's is 36-39%, and the draw fills in the rest at around 27%. The draw price at +250 to +280 is worth a look for value-oriented bettors.
On totals, books lean heavily toward the under at 3.5. BetRivers and BetMGM both price the under at -175, and MyBookie has it at -182. The market expects a tight, low-scoring match, which fits the near-even moneyline perfectly.
Aston Villa at Newcastle United, 9:30 AM PDT
Newcastle are home favorites at around +110 across nearly every book, implying roughly 47.6% win probability. Aston Villa are priced at +200 to +233 on the road, with FanDuel offering the best price on a Villa win at +200. The draw sits around +275 to +295. On totals, the over 2.5 is a strong lean. BetMGM prices the over at -175 and BetRivers at -167, implying around 63% probability of three or more goals. The market is fairly unified in expecting goals in this one.
Sunday, October 18
Crystal Palace at Brighton and Hove Albion, 6:00 AM PDT
Brighton are sizable home favorites, with their moneyline ranging from -159 (BetRivers) to -189 (FanDuel/MyBookie). FanDuel's -189 implies 65% win probability. Crystal Palace are long shots at +400 (DraftKings) to +456 (Polymarket/Kalshi), implying 18-20% win probability. There is notable price dispersion on Brighton's line, and the gap between BetRivers (-159) and FanDuel (-189) matters if you are laying chalk. The total sits at 2.5, with books uniformly leaning over. BetMGM leads at -185 on the over, while Polymarket and Kalshi are the softest at -164.
Manchester United at Leeds United, 6:00 AM PDT
One of the true coin-flip games of the week. BetRivers posts both sides at exactly +160, as clean a pick-em as you will find. Most other books make Leeds a very slight home favorite, with Leeds in the +144 to +163 range and Manchester United at +159 to +178. The draw is priced around +250 to +275, a 27-28% implied probability that is elevated for a three-way market and signals the books see a stalemate as legitimately in play.
On totals, the over 2.5 is a mild favorite at -145 to -164 depending on the book. Notably, the over 3 is near even money at BetUS (+103), suggesting this derby could produce more goals than the tight moneyline implies. If you want to build a parlay with either side here, the Parlay Calculator will show you the combined payout against your other legs.
Sunderland at Bournemouth, 6:00 AM PDT
The second genuine coin-flip of the weekend. Bournemouth are priced at +100 (BetMGM, Bovada, Fanatics, FanDuel, MyBookie) to +108 (Polymarket/Kalshi), with several books literally offering even money on the home side. Sunderland are around +246 to +270 to win, implying roughly 27% probability. The draw is similarly priced at +260 to +270 at most books. When you account for the three-way split, Bournemouth and Sunderland are being treated as nearly equal in win/draw outcome probability.
On totals, the over/under 2.5 is legitimately tight. BetUS has it at -119 over / -101 under, nearly a push on the under. LowVig posts -123 over / +101 under. For bettors who want to take under 2.5 goals, this is one of the most favorable total prices of the week.
Arsenal at Nottingham Forest, 8:30 AM PDT
The Sunday closer is the clearest one-sided match of the week outside of City vs. Ipswich. Arsenal are road favorites at -164 to -196 across the market. FanDuel's -196 implies 66% win probability. The best price on Arsenal is Kalshi at -164, implying around 62%. Nottingham Forest range from +450 (MyBookie) to +567 (Polymarket/Kalshi) to win at home, implying 15-18% probability. The draw is priced at +290 to +317, roughly 25% implied.
The spread market adds context. At LowVig and BetOnline, Arsenal -1 is available at even money (+100), meaning the market prices a multi-goal Arsenal win as nearly a coin-flip. If you are laying chalk on Arsenal to win but want extra margin, that -1 spread at +100 is a far more efficient bet than the -172 moneyline at most books.
For line movement across all ten fixtures, the Line History tool has 30 days of cross-book movement data. If you are combining any of these EPL sides into a multi-leg ticket, use the Parlay Calculator to sort out the combined odds and implied probability.