EPL Betting Odds: What the Lines Are Saying This Week
Eleven matches are on the EPL slate for the week of August 31, and the betting odds are telling some interesting stories. Arsenal appears in two separate fixtures, bookending the week with a Monday road trip to Aston Villa and a Sunday home clash with Chelsea. The books are splitting opinion on several mid-table matchups, and at least one line has produced an implied probability split that makes Liverpool a significant underdog. Here is the full breakdown.
Monday, August 31
Arsenal at Aston Villa, 3:00 PM EDT
Arsenal opens the week as a clear road favorite at -208, implying roughly a 68% win probability. Aston Villa sits at +450 with an 18% implied chance. The -1.0 spread at -115 reinforces that expectation, and the 2.5 total signals books are not anticipating a high-scoring affair. Laying over two units to win one on the road is the tradeoff at that price. The +450 underdog line offers value only if you genuinely believe Villa can pull it off. Right now, the market does not.
Friday, September 4
Liverpool at Ipswich Town, 3:00 PM EDT
One of the most notable lines of the week. Ipswich Town is listed as a -185 home favorite over Liverpool, implying a 65% win probability. Liverpool sits at +350 with just a 22% implied chance. The 3.5 total is the highest on the slate alongside Coventry at Man City, hinting at a more open game. If this line feels off, run the numbers through our EV Calculator before committing.
Saturday, September 5
The bulk of the slate lands here, with six matches in the 10:00 AM EDT window and additional kickoffs at 7:30 AM and 12:30 PM.
Bournemouth at Newcastle United, 7:30 AM EDT
One of the tighter lines of the week. Bournemouth comes in at +120 with a 45% implied probability, while Newcastle sits at +240. The draw is absorbing a significant chunk of the remaining probability, and the 0.0 spread confirms books see this as a pick-em. Shop lines carefully here.
Sunderland at Brentford, 10:00 AM EDT
Neither moneyline jumps off the page. Brentford is at +270 and Sunderland at +375, with the draw again carrying heavy implied weight. The spread gives Brentford -1.0 at +104, an unusual positive-money line that may interest value-oriented bettors.
Leeds United at Brighton, 10:00 AM EDT
Leeds is the favorite at -135, implying a 57% win probability, with Brighton at +250. The spread lists Brighton at -0.5 on their home ground at -118, a notable contrast with the moneyline. The 2.5 total again points to a low-scoring expectation.
Coventry City at Manchester City, 10:00 AM EDT
The most lopsided matchup of the week. Manchester City is -500 with an 83% implied win probability. Coventry checks in at +825 with just an 11% implied chance. The -2.0 spread at -109 suggests a comfortable City win. At -500, the value is not on the favorite for most bettors. If you are including City in a parlay, use our Parlay Calculator to see what it does to your combined odds and implied probability.
Tottenham Hotspur at Nottingham Forest, 10:00 AM EDT
A genuinely competitive line. Spurs are at +160 and Forest at +210, with the draw pulling in heavy implied probability. The 0.0 spread for Forest at -118 shows a slight lean toward the home side, but this is a true pick-em. Treat it accordingly.
Crystal Palace at Fulham, 10:00 AM EDT
Fulham is a modest favorite at +115 with a 47% implied win probability, while Palace sits at +188. The spread gives Palace a half-goal cushion at -149, a notably steep price for that margin. The gap between the moneyline and spread pricing here is worth scrutinizing before placing.
Aston Villa at Hull City, 12:30 PM EDT
Villa returns to action just two days after facing Arsenal, this time against Hull. The moneylines are remarkably even at Villa +240 and Hull +270, with the spread giving Villa the edge at -0.5 for -120. Books essentially see this as a coin flip, and the 2.5 total means a single goal could decide it.
Sunday, September 6
Manchester United at Everton, 9:00 AM EDT
Another near-even matchup. United is at +180 and Everton at +230, with the draw likely carrying 30-plus percent of implied probability. The 0.0 spread for United at -149 is steep relative to the moneyline. Bettors considering the spread should weigh whether that price is justified given the pick-em implied odds.
Chelsea at Arsenal, 11:30 AM EDT
The slate closes with Arsenal as the favorite, listed at +240 on the moneyline with Chelsea at +350 and a 22% implied win probability. The -0.5 spread for Arsenal is priced at -141. The 2.5 total again points to a low-scoring expectation. Arsenal's appearances on both ends of the week make them one of the most-watched clubs on the slate. Check the Homepage for live odds comparison before placing.